Nick Marlow 
The new element is not another airstrike — it is a price tag. Hours before ordering a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran, President Trump proposed a tolling scheme for the Strait of Hormuz that the New York Post reports could generate nearly $200 billion a year for the United States. That moves the story past the question we covered earlier — whether Washington would police Hormuz — to a much larger one: whether it intends to charge for the passage itself.
Previously, Trump had announced the US Navy would reinstate the naval blockade of the strait and cast Washington as the guardian of the waterway. The strikes have since continued: the latest wave began at 4:45 p.m. EDT on Monday at Trump's direction, the third straight day of US attacks, per The Hill and the New York Post.
From enforcer to gatekeeper
The tolling idea reverses Trump's own prior position. He had spent months rejecting Iran's plan for post-war tolls before announcing his own concept on Monday, the New York Post notes, in what that outlet frames as possibly a negotiating tactic. The distinction matters: a blockade is a wartime instrument that ends when the fighting does, while a toll is a standing charge that outlives the war and needs someone to collect it indefinitely.
Hypothesis: the toll is being used as leverage in talks with Tehran rather than as firm policy. Supporting this: the Post explicitly raises the negotiating-tactic reading, and Trump's abrupt switch from rejecting tolls to proposing them fits a bargaining move more than a fixed plan. Against this: the near-$200 billion figure is a concrete number attached to a concrete mechanism, and it arrives alongside real, ongoing military action — not the usual signalling of a bluff.
Why allies should be watching
The consequence runs straight through Washington's alliances. A large share of seaborne crude and liquefied natural gas moves through Hormuz, and the states most exposed — in Europe and East Asia — are the same partners the US usually leans on. A US-set toll would mean allies paying Washington to move the energy their economies depend on, converting a security guarantee into a fee. That is a different bargain from the one the postwar order was built on, and it lands hardest on the countries with the least ability to route around the strait.
There is also a timeline wrinkle worth flagging. Trump told lawmakers that military action against Iran had formally restarted last week, according to CBS News — a formal restart that predates the public escalation and the toll announcement, suggesting the current campaign was set in motion before this week's headlines.
What to watch next
- Whether the tolling concept hardens into a concrete mechanism — a rate, a collection method, a legal basis — or fades once it has served its purpose at the negotiating table.
- How Gulf-dependent allies in Europe and Asia respond to the prospect of paying Washington for passage they have long treated as an international right.
- Whether the strikes continue past a third night, and whether Iran or other Gulf actors move to contest the blockade at sea.
- What Trump tells Congress next, given his account that formal military action restarted last week.
