Thomas Ashway 
Iran has extended its retaliatory strikes to Oman, widening a conflict that has now touched six Gulf states, according to The Independent.
The earlier phase of this crisis saw six US soldiers killed in a drone strike in Kuwait as Washington bombed Iran and Hormuz shut again. Since then the exchange of fire has escalated further, with Iran also hitting Jordan and Bahrain, according to France 24.
A third US strike wave in two days
The United States launched a third major air campaign against Iran between July 12 and July 13, hours after some of its largest strikes since President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over, France 24 reported. Iran responded by announcing it had begun a retaliatory campaign against US military bases in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, according to the same report.
Oman is the latest addition to that target list, according to The Independent's live coverage, extending a conflict that had already spread across Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait.
Hormuz not shut, but targeted
The Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes, is not fully closed, according to France 24. Iran has instead been striking vessels that follow a shipping route through the strait defined by the United States, the broadcaster reported. Negotiators are struggling to reach a lasting deal that would keep the strait open, and the standoff is described as being "back to square one," according to the same report.
Talks between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the war remain unresolved, with the renewed strikes threatening to overtake diplomacy, France 24 said.
Markets move fast
Crude oil prices surged as the renewed US-Iran strikes fueled market fears, according to France 24. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above $74 a barrel as geopolitical risk drove gains, according to TradingPedia, though other tracking put WTI still below $75, according to FXStreet.
Equity markets showed strain as well. Australian mining shares weighed on the broader market as the conflict escalated, according to CommBank market commentary.
Why it matters
- Oman borders the Strait of Hormuz directly, meaning the conflict now touches every state along the world's most important oil chokepoint.
- Six Gulf and Middle Eastern states — Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and now Oman — have been hit or targeted since the ceasefire collapsed, according to France 24.
- Oil prices and mining-heavy equity markets are already pricing in disruption risk, even though the strait itself remains open, according to FXStreet and CommBank.
- Unresolved US-Iran talks mean there is currently no diplomatic mechanism visibly containing further escalation, according to France 24.
What to watch next
- Whether Oman, a traditional US-Iran diplomatic intermediary, can still play a mediating role after being struck itself.
- Any further Iranian action against shipping on the US-defined Hormuz route, which would be the clearest signal of a strait closure attempt.
- Oil price movement past the $75 WTI level, which markets are treating as a threshold for a sharper reaction, according to FXStreet.
- Whether Washington and Tehran resume the stalled talks to end the war, or whether further strikes displace them entirely, according to France 24.
Regional instability is expected to persist as long as the conflict continues without a negotiated resolution, according to The Australian.
