US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over after renewed exchanges of fire between the two countries' armed forces, according to El Cronista.

Trump said the United States "will probably hit Iran hard again tonight," The Independent reported.

He described Iran's leadership as "scum," per the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ). The paper reported that Washington nonetheless signalled a willingness to keep negotiating.

Markets move to safety

The escalation drove investors toward the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, according to FXEmpire. Such flows typically strengthen the dollar and pressure emerging-market currencies.

The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global growth forecast, citing the war in the Middle East as a drag on the outlook, the IMF said, as reported by Anadolu Ajansı.

Hormuz remains the chokepoint

For decades Iran has relied on the Strait of Hormuz as its principal geopolitical lever, a chokepoint through which up to a third of the world's seaborne oil passes, Simon Watkins wrote for RealClearWorld, citing Oil Price.

Watkins reported that Washington has a plan to neutralise Tehran's ability to use the strait as leverage. The details of that plan were not specified in the report.

The bigger picture

The sequence follows a familiar pattern: escalation on the ground, a threat of wider strikes, and a parallel channel left open for talks. The NZZ argued that neither Washington nor Tehran appears to want open war, even as their forces trade fire.

Hypothesis: the ceasefire's collapse is a bargaining move rather than the start of a sustained campaign. Supporting this: Trump's declaration was paired with a stated openness to keep negotiating (NZZ), and the NZZ's assessment that neither side seeks open war. Against this: the explicit threat of renewed strikes "tonight" (The Independent) and continued armed exchanges leave little margin for miscalculation.

The macroeconomic response is already concrete. The dollar's safe-haven bid (FXEmpire) and the IMF's downgraded 2026 forecast (Anadolu) show the conflict pricing into currencies and growth expectations before any oil-supply disruption has been confirmed.

Why it matters: Up to a third of the world's seaborne oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz (RealClearWorld/Oil Price). A closure or serious disruption would feed directly into oil prices, inflation and growth worldwide — which is why the IMF has already trimmed its 2026 outlook and why investors are moving into the dollar, even before any confirmed hit to supply.

What to watch next

  • Whether Trump's threatened "tonight" strikes materialise or the negotiating channel reported by the NZZ prevails.
  • Any move by Iran to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington's response to it.
  • Further currency moves: the depth of the dollar's safe-haven bid and pressure on emerging-market currencies (FXEmpire).
  • Whether the IMF or other institutions revise growth forecasts again if the conflict widens (Anadolu).