For most of the past two decades the answer to a simple polling question — do you view the United States or China more favorably? — reliably came back the same way. The United States led. According to a new Pew Research Center survey reported by The Washington Times, that pattern has now inverted across most of the countries measured.

In 25 of the 36 countries and territories Pew surveyed, more people hold a favorable view of China than of the United States, per France 24's report on the poll released Wednesday. The same survey found Chinese leader Xi Jinping viewed more favorably than U.S. President Donald Trump in 22 of them.

Why the number matters

Favorability is not policy, and a poll is not a treaty. But perception is the medium in which alliances, trade leverage and coalition-building operate. Governments that need to justify cooperation with Washington to their own publics do so more easily when those publics view the United States well; the calculus tightens when opinion turns. A single survey does not decide any of that. What makes this one notable is that it is hard data showing the comparative balance tipping toward Beijing, rather than an assertion that it has.

The geographic detail sharpens the point. Among the places where China now polls better than the United States are Canada and Mexico — Washington's two immediate neighbors and its largest trading partners, both named in France 24's account. Soft power tends to hold longest closest to home; erosion there is the harder signal to dismiss.

What the data establishes, and what it does not

  • Established (cited): In 25 of 36 countries and territories, China is viewed more favorably than the United States, per Pew via France 24.
  • Established (cited): Xi is viewed more favorably than Trump in 22 of the 36, per the same source.
  • Established (cited): For years global opinion largely favored the United States over China; this year those views flipped toward Beijing, per Pew as reported by The Washington Times.
  • Attributed interpretation: The shift is driven in part by tensions between the Trump administration and U.S. allies, per The Washington Times' summary of the survey.

The sources do not, in the material available here, break out the margin by which China leads in each country, the survey's fieldwork dates, sample sizes, or whether the movement reflects the United States falling, China rising, or both. Those distinctions matter for reading the result and are not established by the reporting at hand.

How to read a reversal

The Washington Times, summarizing Pew, ties the change in part to friction between the Trump administration and U.S. allies. That framing supports a specific reading — that the shift is bound up with one administration's posture rather than a slow structural drift.

Hypothesis: the inversion is a reaction to the current administration and would soften if U.S.-ally relations warmed, rather than a permanent realignment toward Beijing. Supporting this: the reporting attributes the move in part to tensions between the Trump administration and allies, and favorability toward the United States has historically tracked closely with who occupies the White House. Against this: a lead that held for years reversing across a majority of 36 countries in a single year is a large, broad movement, and the provided sources do not establish how quickly — or whether — such shifts recover. On the evidence available here, confidence is low; the poll shows the direction of change clearly but not its durability.

What to watch

  • The margins and the mechanism: whether follow-up Pew detail shows China rising, the United States falling, or both — the three imply very different responses.
  • Neighbors first: whether the Canada and Mexico readings move again in the next round of surveying, the most sensitive test of whether this is reaction or realignment.
  • Whether opinion translates: any concrete sign that shifting favorability changes state behavior — a vote at a multilateral body, a trade alignment, a coalition that forms or fails to.