Taiwan's annual Han Kuang military exercises this year simulated an internet blackout severe enough that ordinary apps stopped working — "TikTok wouldn't open at all," one participant told The Guardian. The wider drill carried more combat realism than in past years, part of what Nikkei Asia calls a deliberately "serious" message to Beijing, marking a shift from a drill that for decades served mainly as a symbolic show of resolve.

Hypothesis: the internet-blackout element suggests Taipei is now rehearsing specifically for a blockade or communications-cutoff scenario, rather than only an amphibious assault. Supporting this: a blockade is widely judged a more plausible near-term coercion tool than a full invasion, and testing whether civilian internet access holds up is a costly, deliberate design choice for the drill's planners. Against this: Han Kuang has added realism incrementally for years, and one new element does not by itself confirm a formal shift in Taiwan's threat assessment.

Taiwan sits at the center of global chip supply chains. Any escalation that disrupts the island would ripple through economies well beyond the Taiwan Strait, which is why Taipei's own contingency planning is being watched as closely as troop movements by Washington, Brussels and Tokyo.

What to watch: whether future drills extend blackout simulations to financial and port systems; how Beijing responds militarily around the island in the coming weeks; and whether Washington or Tokyo cite the drills in their own Taiwan contingency plans.