Israeli strikes killed more than two dozen Palestinians in Gaza over the weekend, and Israeli aircraft crossed into Lebanese airspace at least 125 times between Thursday and Sunday, with combined overflight time exceeding 418 hours, according to UN News. Saturday's strikes also hit the area around Al-Aqsa Hospital, destroying an adjacent medical storage facility.

The barrage came days after the Board of Peace, the US-led body backed by the UN Security Council under Donald Trump's Gaza plan, announced a deal on Friday for the phased disarmament of Hamas — what Trump called a "historic agreement," per Al Jazeera. The roadmap hands civilian and security control to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, backed by a not-yet-deployed International Stabilization Force, within 14 days. Israel's government said Sunday it had "serious security concerns" about the plan and would not withdraw from Gaza ahead of full Hamas disarmament, per UN News.

Hamas has said it will not disarm until Israel meets its own ceasefire obligations, which it has not fully done since the deal was reached in October, according to Al Jazeera.

UNIFIL reports daily Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace, a pattern persisting despite Hezbollah's formal disengagement under the ceasefire with Lebanon. Hypothesis: Israel is testing how far it can extend strikes on both fronts while attention is fixed on Gaza's disarmament process. Supporting this: the weekend's overflights coincided with the Gaza casualties, suggesting deliberate latitude rather than isolated incidents. Against it: no retaliatory Hezbollah fire was reported and Iran made no public response, suggesting neither is ready to reopen the northern front.

Watch whether Israel begins any withdrawal before the roadmap deadline, and whether Hezbollah or Iran shift from absorbing the airspace incursions to answering them.