Eleanor Danby A conditional yes from Jerusalem
Hamas said Friday it had accepted a deal, brokered by US President Donald Trump, under which the group would disarm and Israel would withdraw from Gaza, as covered in our earlier report. What's new: a political source told AFP on July 31 that Israel will not actually leave the territory until Hamas achieves what the source called 'genuine disarmament,' according to France 24. The Israeli government itself has stayed officially silent on the agreement, the same source said.
That silence matters. A precondition floated by an anonymous political source is not a government commitment, and 'genuine disarmament' has no agreed definition in any of the public material — not what counts as disarmed, not who verifies it, not on what timeline.
Why it matters
The Gaza war has been the region's central flashpoint for nearly two years, and this deal is the mechanism meant to end it. Its success or failure shapes Trump's signature Middle East initiative, tests the EU's diplomatic weight in a conflict it has mostly watched from the sidelines, and determines whether roughly two million Gazans see reconstruction begin or another round of fighting. A stalled sequencing dispute — Israel wants disarmament first, Hamas has given only a conditional agreement to lay down arms — is exactly the kind of technical impasse that has unraveled prior Gaza truces.
What the roadmap actually commits to
Under the plan, Hamas would lay down its weapons and Israeli troops would withdraw from Gaza, according to the BBC's outline of the roadmap. Disarmament was a condition of the second phase of the Trump-brokered plan, per France 24. What the sources do not establish is the order of operations — whether withdrawal and disarmament proceed in parallel, in verified stages, or only after Israel is satisfied Hamas has fully complied, which is the sequencing Israel's political source now says it wants.
| Question | Hamas's position | Israel's position |
|---|---|---|
| Will disarmament happen | Yes, per Friday's agreement | Demanded as precondition for withdrawal |
| Will withdrawal happen | Expected under the roadmap | Not before 'genuine disarmament,' per source |
| Timeline / verification | Not specified in public statements | Not specified; no official government statement yet |
Brussels calls it a breakthrough
The European Union has welcomed the disarmament agreement as a 'constructive step toward peace,' according to Middle East Monitor. The EU's readiness to endorse the deal before Israel has even confirmed it publicly underscores how eager European capitals are for any sign of durable de-escalation, after two years defined largely by their limited leverage over the conflict.
The obstacles analysts see
The BBC's international editor Jeremy Bowen writes that the realities of politics, ongoing war, near-total mutual distrust, the deaths of thousands and the physical destruction of Gaza will make any disarmament agreement 'very complicated' to implement, per his analysis for the BBC. He nonetheless calls Hamas's move a rare source of hope after repeated collapses of earlier truce efforts.
What to watch
- Whether Israel's government issues an official statement on the deal, rather than leaving it to an anonymous political source
- Any published verification mechanism or third-party monitor for Hamas's weapons handover
- The first physical, observable disarmament step — a weapons handover, decommissioning event, or similar — versus further statements alone
