One thread ran through today's coverage: deterrence is being tested, in Moscow by Ukrainian drones and in Tehran by the industrial scars of last year's strikes.

Russia-Ukraine

  • Ukraine struck Moscow overnight with one of its largest drone attacks in two years, killing one person and injuring several, Russian officials said; the strike raises the political cost of any ceasefire for the Kremlin, with the target and Moscow's possible response still unclear (more).

Iran's deterrence problem

  • Germany's Verfassungsschutz warned that Iran has stepped up attempts to acquire missile technology on German soil despite sanctions, a risk the agency links to Germany's role as Iran's largest EU trading partner; which companies or components are involved remains unknown (more).
  • An analysis piece set France's first submarine launch of its upgraded M51.3 missile against Iran's halting effort to rebuild missile and drone factories destroyed by Israeli and U.S. strikes in 2025-26, arguing that deterrence today hinges on industrial resilience under pressure rather than declared doctrine (more).