Two counter-espionage cases and one hard look at deterrence arithmetic set today's agenda — all converging on the same question: how exposed is the West to Chinese pressure, and how prepared is it to respond.

Counter-espionage on two continents

  • The FBI arrested a California woman at Los Angeles International Airport, accusing her of acting as a Chinese agent and secretly surveilling the family of Taiwan's president; how she allegedly made contact with her handlers remains unconfirmed pending further filings (more).
  • Czechia opens its first trial under the new offense of "illegal activity for a foreign power" in mid-October, against Jang I-min, accused of working as a Chinese intelligence operative under journalistic cover; he faces up to five years and the verdict will test whether Prague prosecutes Chinese espionage openly rather than through quiet expulsions (more).

Can Washington deter two theaters at once?

  • The US is cutting its European brigade allocation from five to three and pressing allies to fill the gap, explicitly to free up forces for deterring China (more).
  • A RAND study warns that the resulting conventional shortfalls in Europe could themselves raise the risk of nuclear escalation (more).
  • Taiwan is building a drone army to blunt a potential Chinese invasion, even as the US Air Force winds down its own in-house China-research institute just as Beijing marked the PRC's 77th anniversary (more).