Iran's standoff with Washington ran through both hard leverage and soft pressure today, framed by a wider question about what deterrence threats actually commit anyone to.

Iran, Washington, and the limits of deterrence

  • Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz seven days after any agreement, made by Iran's foreign minister to Trump's envoy in New York in the first direct US-Iran contact since the earlier ceasefire collapsed; Trump also raised the war with China's leader. more
  • US sanctions on Iranian aviation have grounded flights carrying Shia pilgrims into Iraq, and Baghdad is negotiating a carve-out with Washington while Iran reacts angrily, other countries suspend Iranian flights, and a medicine shortage inside Iran points to the same sanctions squeeze. more
  • Analysis: Iran, India, France and Sweden all used the word deterrence this week but meant different things — conscription, doctrine, nuclear posture toward Poland, public nuclear literacy — and none defined what response follows if the threat is tested; CSIS separately argues the West never fixed that answer for Ukraine either. more