Trust in deterrence took hits on two fronts today: a battlefield truce broke down into dueling fake nuclear alerts, and a bigger pattern emerged of states hedging against US security guarantees.

War and security

  • A local ceasefire around Oleshky in Kherson region expired, and alert apps on both sides pushed false nuclear and chemical warnings; Kyiv blames Moscow, Moscow has not named a suspect, and no technical evidence is public yet (more).
  • North Korea, South Korea, Iran and others are building alternatives to relying on US extended deterrence — from a faster nuclear arsenal to nuclear submarines to small reactors framed as strategic sovereignty tools (more).

Czechia and the EU

  • The Czech Supreme Audit Office found Czech bodies draw EU cohesion funds correctly on paper but often spend them on projects that are unneeded or become pointless over time, despite more than 1.3 trillion crowns due for 2021-2027 (more).