Red lines frayed today from Tehran to the Gulf to Washington's own credibility.

Middle East: nuclear and maritime red lines

  • Iran is reportedly weighing withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the pact barring new nuclear-armed states — no reason, timeline or official confirmation yet (more).
  • A week of unclaimed Gulf tanker attacks — a Qatari LNG carrier hit, three merchant ships struck, 25 sailors rescued by Oman — came as Iran called for an 'expanded deterrence' order and halted its own tanker movements (more).

Washington's credibility, at home and abroad

  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied the Trump administration helped former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro evade prosecution, per Al Jazeera, turning a Brazilian legal matter into a question about US rule-of-law credibility in Latin America (more).
  • As the US pursued sanctions relief and a Putin meeting, Britain, Finland, Italy and France hardened their postures and hedged their own deterrents, while the EU stayed stuck on its budget and trade strategy (more).