Zoe Callow 
Washington is running the same playbook on two trading partners at once this year: squeeze first, negotiate later. One of them has already paid its way out.
The US-Canada relationship spiraled again in late August, when Washington imposed fresh tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods and Ottawa retaliated within days, according to CNN. Trump has also floated a 100 percent blanket tariff on all Canadian imports, on top of levies already hitting steel, aluminum and autos, per the Fulcrum.
India got the harsher version of the same treatment first. Washington combined a 25 percent tariff with an extra 25-point penalty over its Russian oil and defense purchases, pushing the total into one of the highest brackets the US applies to any trading partner, according to 360info.org. New Delhi bought its way out in February, agreeing to drop tariffs on American goods and pivot away from Russian oil for a lower US rate.
Hypothesis: Trump treats tariffs as leverage regardless of how close the ally is, squeezing hard, then trading relief for concessions unrelated to trade, like oil sourcing. Supporting this: India's rate fell only after it agreed to ditch Russian energy, a foreign-policy win folded into a tariff deal, per 360info.org. Against it: Canada, the more integrated economic partner, has no equivalent offramp nine months in.
Public opinion runs against both moves, according to CNN polling.
What to watch: whether Canada gets an India-style exit, or the threatened blanket tariff lands first.
