Jonah Redfern A new projection from Europe Elects shows the centrist alliance of the European People's Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew Europe falling short of a majority in the European Parliament for the first time since the chamber's creation, as right-wing and populist groups continue to gain ground, Euronews reported on 12 August 2026.
Projected change in MEP seats
The European Parliament has no government and opposition in the national sense. Since 2019, a working majority has come from an informal alliance of EPP, S&D and Renew — sometimes called the 'grand coalition' — whose combined seats have passed legislation under the ordinary legislative procedure (a simple majority of votes cast, per Article 294 TFEU) without needing support from either flank.
If the projection were borne out in an actual vote, that arithmetic would disappear. Every future dossier — a sanctions package, an asylum reform, next year's budget — would need votes assembled case by case, from the Greens/EFA or from the ECR, Patriots for Europe and Europe of Sovereign Nations.
The incremental increase of the radical right camp overall makes these parties difficult to ignore in coalition dynamics.
Tobias Gerhard Schminke, Europe Elects, via Euronews
- Ordinary legislation would need a majority rebuilt for each vote rather than relying on a standing centrist bloc
- Confirmation of future Commissioners and any motion of censure against the Commission (Article 234 TFEU, requiring two-thirds of votes cast representing a majority of MEPs) would depend on wider, harder-to-predict coalitions
- Negotiations over the EU's next multiannual budget would give currently marginal groups new bargaining power over Parliament's position
The projection models national polling onto Parliament's proportional seat allocation; it is not a count of an actual vote, and opinion can shift before the next election in June 2029. It would, however, extend a trend already visible in the 2024 election, when right-of-centre parties gained close to 60 seats, according to Euronews.
What to watch: whether the European Commission starts pre-clearing legislation with the ECR or the Greens rather than defaulting to the grand coalition, and whether Europe Elects's model holds up as national polling tightens closer to 2029.
