A declassified US intelligence memo dated Friday warns that Iranian plots to target and kill American officials in the Middle East have "substantially increased," with some efforts reaching "advanced stages," according to The Hill, which obtained the document.

Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton addressed the warning to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, per the same report. The memo arrived days after the State Department had already ordered a departure of US personnel from the region, The Hill reported.

The BBC separately corroborated the finding, reporting that Iran is "trying harder" to target US personnel across the Middle East.

Hypothesis: formal escalation of this warning to the Secretary of State, rather than routine threat reporting, suggests Washington sees a credible near-term risk. Supporting this: the memo's own language of plots reaching "advanced stages" and its timing alongside a personnel departure order. Against this: neither source names specific targets, countries, or a timeline, leaving the threat's scope unconfirmed.

Neither report details how the threat would affect US allies hosting American forces in the Gulf, nor whether oil markets have reacted.

What to watch: whether the State Department expands personnel movements or travel restrictions in the region, whether Tehran responds to or denies the memo's claims, and whether further declassified assessments name specific targets or countries.