Friedrich Merz has pushed into Sachsen-Anhalt ahead of Sunday's state election, but his own Christian Democrats "have no great desire to see him" there, according to WELT correspondent Thorsten Jungholt (WELT). CDU top candidate Sven Schulze is keeping demonstrative distance from Berlin as the party braces for a possible historic loss to the AfD (WELT).

While Merz warns from the sidelines, AfD frontrunner Ulrich Siegmund is working crowds directly — WELT chief reporter Steffen Schwarzkopf describes voters who aren't natural AfD supporters turning out in Magdeburg just to see him in person (WELT).

In an ARD summer interview, Merz warned that a far-right-led state government would inflict "considerable damage," citing the risk that international investors pull out of Sachsen-Anhalt (WELT). SPD deputy parliamentary leader Esra-Leon Limbacher put it starker, vowing "we will do everything to prevent an AfD majority" and saying he has "no interest in Magdeburg becoming a suburb of Russia" (WELT).

Backlash against Germany's Energiewende, the shift away from fossil fuels, is one driver of AfD support in the east and could reshape national energy policy depending on Sunday's outcome, according to oEnergetice.cz (oEnergetice.cz).

HYPOTHESIS: a strong AfD result turns Sachsen-Anhalt into a test of whether Germany's cross-party "firewall" against far-right coalitions survives contact with power, and a signal Brussels and Washington will read for Berlin's future stance on Ukraine aid and Russia sanctions. Supporting evidence: the SPD is already framing the vote around Russia, and Merz is fighting the AfD on economic grounds rather than migration, suggesting foreign-policy stakes are in play. Against it: German state governments have limited authority over foreign and defense policy, so any signal would reflect political momentum, not policy change.