One theme runs through the day: the US–Iran war escalates, and everything else — oil prices, growth forecasts, NATO's summit and Europe's borders — moves in its wake.

Middle East: the war widens

  • The US launches fresh strikes on Iran and reimposes oil sanctions; crude climbs as the fragile truce faces its biggest test — more
  • Trump declares the ceasefire dead and threatens further strikes; investors move into the dollar and the Strait of Hormuz becomes the market's central chokepoint — more
  • Analysis: Hormuz under Iran's "arrangements", Somali hijackings and nervous statements on Malacca — one week, three chokepoints, one question: does freedom of navigation still have an enforcer? — more

The economic invoice

  • The IMF cuts its 2026 global growth forecast to 3% — its second cut this year — blaming the war, as oil surges and US equities slide — more
  • Trump calls Spain "a wasted cause" and threatens to end all US trade with it; trade is an exclusive EU competence, so any real fight is with the whole single market — more

Ukraine and the alliance

  • Trump says the US will let Ukraine co-produce Patriot interceptors — a shift from shipping finished stock to sharing production — more
  • Analysis: Washington's move from Patriot supplier to Patriot enabler matters more than any single delivery — more
  • At the Ankara NATO summit, PM Babiš admits Czechia will miss the spending goal and reframes Ukraine aid around PURL; President Pavel calls it a positive signal — the two describe the same dinner irreconcilably — more

Europe's institutions at work

  • Le Pen loses her appeal but keeps her candidacy: the ineligibility bar is a separate penalty a court chooses to impose — or not — more
  • MEPs demand a tougher line on Serbia, but only the 27 governments in the Council, acting by unanimity, can move its frozen accession talks — more
  • Berlin's rushed health-reform vote and the EU's revived "chat control" law share one method — speed over scrutiny — and the second reaches into your phone — more
  • Aviation bosses warn the EU's new Entry-Exit-System could mean queues of up to five hours for the 40 million passengers expected to fly from the UK this summer — more

Also worth a glance

  • China normalises coast-guard patrols off Taiwan's east coast while firing missiles into the Pacific; Taipei warns that without collective pushback, the pressure only ratchets — more