Wednesday's throughline: governments hedging against a crisis they can't yet name, and moving to control more of their own response.

Russia, Ukraine and NATO's nerves

  • US intelligence assesses Putin may test NATO's resolve with a limited incursion; Lithuania separately warns Moscow could stage a false-flag pretext — neither report says where or when (more).
  • The EU Council blacklists five more people tied to Russia's defence and arms sector, asset freezes and travel bans taking immediate effect after renewed strikes on Ukrainian cities (more).
  • The US Senate passes a sweeping Russia-energy and Iran sanctions bill named for the late Senator Lindsey Graham; it now needs the House and Trump's signature (more).

Asia-Pacific standoff

  • Taiwan's President William Lai joins a middle-of-the-night evacuation drill during the island's largest-ever military exercise, the clearest rehearsal yet for an attempt on its leadership (more).

European Union

  • The Commission signs a contract adding 66 satellites to IRIS², turning the EU's secure-connectivity constellation from procurement award into a binding build commitment (more).

Analysis: who holds the trigger

  • Luxembourg shops for European air defence, Australia becomes the first foreign AIM-260 operator, India test-fires its Agni-IV, and Taiwan's missile buildup still leaves a civil-defence gap — The Brief reads the pattern as mid-tier states wanting their own launch authority, not an alliance exit (more).