Today's throughline: Western resolve on paper, gaps in delivery underneath.

Europe: sanctions split, deterrence still unbuilt

  • The EU failed to agree new Russia sanctions after France and Luxembourg blocked the package, the same day Trump was due to meet Zelenskyy at the UN General Assembly in New York; intelligence services warn Russia may be preparing to test NATO's limits (more).
  • Lithuania is moving to end its nuclear-weapons-free status and running mass-evacuation drills against a possible Russian attack, but the industrial base behind the deterrence talk is lagging: Leonardo's promised €400 million in offsets to Austria remain largely unfulfilled and Europe's space-defense procurement is still stuck (more).

United States: a trade truce with a Taiwan angle

  • The Wall Street Journal reports Xi sees Trump's transactional instincts, now on display in their trade truce, as an opening to pressure Taiwan into believing resistance to Beijing is pointless, even as the US-China relationship keeps flaring over AI, trade and Iran (more).