Escalation around Ukraine's airspace and Washington's growing taste for sanctions as leverage set the tone for 16 August.

War Creeps Toward NATO's Airspace

  • A NATO fighter jet shot down a Russian drone that crossed into Romanian airspace, a direct intercept on alliance territory, as Russia absorbed its largest drone barrage of the war around Moscow (more).
  • Ukraine's overnight response swelled to 600-800 drones, killing at least six people in Russia and for the first time targeting Russia's 'Starlink' ground relay network used for satellite communications (more).
  • Ukrainian drones torched a Wildberries warehouse at Koledino, 25 miles from the Kremlin, in a strike reported to involve British-made drones for the first time, raising the question of Western limits on how supplied weapons may be used (more).

Sanctions as the Weapon of Choice

  • The EU Council renewed sanctions on Iran over its supply of attack drones and missile parts to Russia, with Ukraine and eight other non-EU states formally aligning despite having no vote in the decision (more).
  • Washington is weighing sanctions against a sitting justice of Brazil's Supreme Court, per the Financial Times, a move that would mark the first use of sanctions against a foreign judge over rulings rather than corruption or rights abuses (more).

This Week's Bigger Picture

  • Nunissum analysis: Washington escalates against Iran while calling it low-key, NATO keeps intercepting drones without changing posture, and the EU can urge but not order — deterrence is outrunning the capacity behind it (more).
  • Nunissum analysis: Germany, Italy, Australia, India and Iran each reached for the term 'hybrid war' this week rather than 'war,' as a US Congressional Research Service report finds the scale of Russian operations in Europe has outpaced the policy response (more).

Also Worth a Glance

  • US-Canada trade talks stalled, with Washington threatening tariffs of up to 50% on a bilateral relationship worth roughly $900 billion a year (more).