Two hybrid-threat stories, one in the Gulf and one in Germany, plus a summit that showed how thin the BRICS consensus really is.

Middle East: oil and shipping under threat

  • Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline, a key alternative export route for Gulf crude, after a drone attack launched from Iraqi territory near the Iranian border (more).
  • Iraq removed a military commander and opened an investigation into the strike but said it will not retaliate for now (more).
  • Houthi forces separately seized a Red Sea island, tightening their grip on shipping lanes already disrupted by their attacks (more).
  • Together the two incidents revive the twin threat to oil supply and maritime trade just as energy markets were calming (more).

Germany: a Russian name behind the Leipzig drones

  • German security authorities have identified, with high probability, two suspects behind the drone incursion at Leipzig/Halle airport (more).
  • Secret investigation files obtained by Welt am Sonntag show one suspect is linked to the GRU, Russia's military intelligence agency (more).
  • The finding pushes Berlin from calling the incident unexplained hybrid sabotage toward direct attribution against a Russian state body, though no authority has confirmed it publicly (more).

Global order: BRICS shows its cracks

  • BRICS leaders meeting in New Delhi agreed to expand trade settlement in national currencies instead of the dollar, the summit's one concrete outcome (more).
  • The same summit failed to agree a common position on the Israel-Iran war, and Pakistan's membership bid remains blocked in what is widely read as an Indian veto (more).
  • India treats BRICS as one forum among several, alongside the Quad and G20, while Russia and China use it as a counterweight to Washington (more).