China's Ministry of National Defense announced on 11 August 2026 that Chinese and Indonesian frigates will hold a joint navigation exercise in waters east of Taiwan in mid-August, the same day Beijing's Foreign Ministry pressed the Pacific Islands Forum to "properly handle" Taiwan-related issues ahead of its Palau summit, according to Xinhua.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Taiwan's participation in international bodies "must be handled in accordance with the one-China principle," citing UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, after Forum Secretary-General Baron Waqa confirmed a Taiwanese official would attend the 30 August–4 September summit in Palau as a "development partner," a status Taipei has held since 1993.
The exercise pairs Chinese and Indonesian frigates for communications and at-sea replenishment drills, which Beijing's defense ministry described to Xinhua as meant to "deepen practical cooperation" and "maintain peace and stability in the region." The Diplomat notes the drills fall in waters where Chinese naval and coast guard activity is already becoming routine — a corridor leading into the Pacific exclusive economic zones the forum's own Ocean of Peace framework is meant to protect.
Taiwan's formal diplomatic roster has shrunk to 12 states since Nauru switched recognition to Beijing in 2024, per Anadolu Ajansı; of the forum's members, only Palau, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu remain allies. Last year's summit, hosted by Beijing-aligned Solomon Islands, excluded Taiwan while China attended, making Waqa's invitation to Palau a reversal.
Hypothesis: Beijing timed the exercise announcement to coincide with its Pacific Islands Forum warning as a coordinated show of military reach and diplomatic leverage ahead of the Palau summit. Supporting this: both moves landed the same day and both bear on Taiwan's regional standing. Against this: the mid-August exercise window likely reflects ship scheduling with Indonesia rather than the forum's calendar, and Beijing frames the drill as routine bilateral cooperation, not a Taiwan-directed signal.
What to watch: whether Palau holds its invitation through the summit's opening, and whether Chinese naval activity east of Taiwan pushes further into the island's own waters before it convenes.