Analysis ✳
Gulf tanker attacks spark fear over who controls the key oil waterway
Over one week, a Qatari gas tanker and three other ships were attacked in the Gulf, and Oman rescued 25 sailors from a burning vessel.
#deterrence
Analysis ✳
Governments scramble to rebuild deterrence after threats already appeared
Several countries are building up their defenses only after being caught off guard, rather than before.
Analysis ✳
Rearmament, hedging and new tech races show trust in allies is slipping
Five separate defense stories this week describe the same trend: countries doubting that powerful allies or old rules will protect them.
USA ✳
US staff reportedly to be stationed inside Taiwan's defense ministry
A Taiwan News report, not yet confirmed by either government, says American defense personnel will be placed inside Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, working alongside its staff rather than just visiting or advising.
Analysis ✳
Iran, India, France and Sweden all talked about deterrence this week
This week officials in Iran, India, France and Sweden all used the word "deterrence," but meant different things by it: Iran praised conscripts, India used new doctrinal terms, France restated its pledge to defend Poland with nuclear weapons, and Sweden published a public guide to nuclear weapons.
Analysis ✳
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan sign mutual defense pact; other states also claim new deterrence
This week four countries made public claims about military deterrence without fully backing them up.
Analysis ✳
Saudi Arabia, India and Australia all doubt their old security guarantees
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a pact this year promising to defend each other if attacked.
Analysis ✳
US scales back South Korea drills as Russia's hybrid war spreads and Iran policy shifts
This month brought three signs that deterrence — the idea that attacking a country will cost more than it's worth — is weakening.
Analysis ✳
NATO Downs a Drone Over Latvia, US Trims a Korea Drill, Europe Warned on Taiwan
In one week, NATO jets shot down an explosive-laden drone that entered Latvia from Belarus, the US scaled back a major annual drill with South Korea, and a former Finnish prime minister warned Europe would react slowly to Chinese pressure on Taiwan, unlike its fast response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, because the EU's decades-old one China policy avoids taking a clear stand on Taiwan.
World ✳
Taiwan Puts Its Security Council in Charge of Preparing for China
Taiwan's National Security Council, once dismissed as powerless, is now coordinating the island's defense buildup against China, including a proposed 18% rise in next year's military budget, tougher war games, and eased rules for satellite internet providers like Starlink.
Analysis ✳
Four countries call very different military plans "deterrence"
In one week, four governments used the word "deterrence" for four unrelated plans: a Saudi Arabia-Pakistan-Turkey defense pact backed by Pakistan's nuclear weapons, a NATO drone-and-sensor network in the Baltic states, European weapons-repair lines set up inside Ukraine as a model for future conflicts, and a North Korean threat of stronger nuclear measures against US-South Korea military drills.
Analysis ✳
Luxembourg, Australia, India and Taiwan all move on missiles in one week
In the same week, Luxembourg looked at buying a European air-defence system, Australia became the first foreign buyer of a new US air-to-air missile, India test-fired a nuclear-capable missile, and analysts noted Taiwan's missile stockpile still has gaps.